Justine Ramage, Anna Vasilevskaya, Timothy Heleniak, Leneisja Jungsberg, Mateo Cordier, et al.. The Arctic Permafrost Vulnerability Index. Sustainability, 2025, 17 (8), pp.3288. ⟨10.3390/su17083288⟩. ⟨hal-05028200⟩

As permafrost thaw accelerates, Arctic communities living on permafrost face new challenges that require the development of local adaptation policies. Vulnerability assessments have not yet been applied in the context of permafrost thaw. We develop a conceptual framework to assess vulnerabilities related to permafrost thaw in the Arctic Circumpolar Permafrost Region (ACPR). The Arctic Permafrost Vulnerability Index (APVI) combines a set of physical and social indicators to reflect the levels of exposure to permafrost thaw and the adaptive capacities to respond in Arctic subregions. Using available indicators, we applied the APVI in 260 subregions on permafrost in the ACPR. Our results show that most subregions (97%, n = 253) are moderately vulnerable to permafrost thaw. This overall vulnerability score reflects large differences in the levels of exposure and adaptive capacities. While most subregions (67%, n = 174) had a high exposure to permafrost thaw, 75% (n = 194) had moderate adaptive capacities to adjust. Alarmingly, a quarter of the subregions (25%, n = 66) had low adaptive capacities to respond to permafrost thaw. The APVI remains conceptual as some limitations related to data quality, access, and availability apply. Thus, the interpretation of the vulnerability results should be evaluated with caution and put into local contexts.

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